Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 67.558102 76.144369 86.095812 98.658642 114.359733 133.715361 1.600223e+02
2024-12-29 58.134202 69.499290 84.043798 104.720308 134.673249 178.994779 2.556039e+02
2025-01-05 50.611433 62.609103 78.901987 103.893716 144.011979 212.381402 3.591332e+02
2025-01-12 44.915515 56.850239 73.729425 101.067276 148.504746 239.330989 4.786312e+02
2025-01-19 39.981508 51.361492 67.891307 95.667708 146.593630 253.059238 5.872502e+02
2025-01-26 38.721524 50.884657 69.299073 102.123599 168.135823 330.054771 1.073583e+03
2025-02-02 37.700814 50.577060 70.833069 109.049820 193.518821 442.055900 2.504606e+03
2025-02-09 35.867858 48.790136 69.656549 110.628963 207.756022 539.766883 6.378067e+03
2025-02-16 33.830601 46.471224 67.266115 109.303591 214.384579 621.006551 2.241080e+04
2025-02-23 31.993942 44.310711 64.894295 107.560513 219.364661 706.763476 2.433331e+06
2025-03-02 30.166388 42.023153 62.061332 104.355598 219.129549 769.134314 NaN
2025-03-09 28.867076 40.511848 60.476258 103.616517 226.269589 899.462810 NaN
2025-03-16 26.994923 37.993051 56.954240 98.306365 218.092060 914.744285 NaN
2025-03-23 26.666120 38.055980 58.236079 104.317954 251.342430 1452.320853 NaN
2025-03-30 25.580505 36.740260 56.764081 103.494956 259.899581 1821.202336 NaN
2025-04-06 24.382847 35.154306 54.629088 100.685283 259.510111 2082.877860 NaN
2025-04-13 23.015317 33.200766 51.636098 95.317228 246.607361 2021.039529 NaN
2025-04-20 22.942533 33.512593 53.130559 101.735312 288.780911 4432.995060 NaN
2025-04-27 22.871372 33.817582 54.641631 108.619437 341.526710 17798.417997 NaN
2025-05-04 22.337311 33.245600 54.278593 110.188764 368.314085 110465.814394 NaN
2025-05-11 21.611912 32.281341 53.005946 108.871637 377.002596 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 20.903915 31.315111 51.660390 107.139314 382.283262 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 20.131857 30.196321 49.915049 103.953917 375.836386 NaN NaN